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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still